Publications

Image of a conifer forest with a mountain in the background

Here are recent papers from members of our lab. Please email me if you are unable to access a paper and would like a pdf copy of a publication.

2026

  • Correia H, Dee L, Byrnes J, Fieberg J, Fortin M-J, Glymour C, Runge J, Shipley B, Shpitser I, Siegel K, Sugihara G, von Holle B, Ferraro P. (2026) Best practices for moving from correlation to causation in ecological research. Nature Communications, 17, 1981.
  • Brumberg H, Dee L, Murayama H, Alvarado Barrientos JJ,Bessesen B, Bouffard M, Burgess M, Cortes J, Furey S, Hernandez N, Luger A, Madden M, Pauline E, Schmitt R, Siegel K,Vargas-Araya L, Whitworth A, Newton P. (2026)Riparian vegetation reduces coastal turbidity. Communications Sustainability 1, 29.

2025

  • Siegel KJ, M Mills-Novoa, E Kinnebrew, J Ochoa-Brito, E Shoffner (2025) Understanding deforestation dynamics in Amazonian protected areas through land-use change models informed by conservation discourses. Biological Conservation 313, 111585.
  • Siegel KJ, L Dee (2025) Foundations and future directions for causal inference in ecological research. Ecology Letters 28(1) e70053.
  • Lynch A, J Ashander, T Ciocco, Cravens A, Dassow C, Dee L, Dunham J, Eaton M, Embke H, Hennessy J, Latzka A, Lawrence D, Littell J, Miller B, Palasti L, Runge M, Sass G, Shultz A, KJ Siegel, Svancara L, Thompson L, Thurman L, Valler J, Weiskopf S, Yocum H (2025) RAD (Resist-accept-direct) switch points and triggers for adaptation planning. Journal of Environmental Management 392.
  • Dudney J, L Dee, R Heilmayr, J Byrnes, KJ Siegel (2025) A causal inference framework for climate change attribution in ecology. Ecology Letters 28(8) e70192.

2024

  • Siegel KJ, K Cavanaugh, L Dee (2024) Balancing multiple management objectives as climate change transforms ecosystems. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 39(4), 381-395. .
  • Senior R, R Bagwyn, D Leng, A Killion, W Jetz, D Wilcove (2024) Global shortfalls in documented actions to conserve biodiversity. Nature, 630, 387-391.
  • Starrs G, KJ Siegel, S Larson, V Butsic (2024) Quantifying large-scale impacts of cattle grazing on annual burn probability in Napa and Sonoma Counties, CA. Ecology & Society, 29(3). .
  • LoPresti A, M Hayden, KJ Siegel, B Poulter, N Stavros, L Dee (2024) Remote sensing applications for prescribed burn research. International Journal of Wildland Fire 33(6). .

2023

  • Olvera Hernandez S, J Martin-Ortega, M Mesa-Jurado, P Novo, G Holmes, A Borchi, A Walsh (2023) Can theatre be used in environmental governance? The view of environmental professionals in Mexico. Environmental Science & Policy, 149, 103559.
  • Olvera Hernandez S, M Mesa-Jurado, P Novo, J Martin-Ortega, A Walsh, G Holmes, A Borchi (2023) Form Theatre as a mechanism to explore representation of local people's values in environmental governance: A case study from Chiapas, Mexico. People & Nature, 5(1), 119-133.
  • Walsh A, S Olvera Hernandez, M Mesa-Jurado, A Borchi, P Novo, J J Martin-Ortega, G Holmes (2023) Valuing trans-disciplinarity: forum theatre in Tabasco and Chiapas, Mexico. Research in Drama Education: The Journal of Applied Theatre and Performance, 28(2), 311-329.

2022

  • Siegel KJ, L Larsen, C Stephens, W Stewart, V Butsic (2022) Quantifying drivers of change in social-ecological systems: land management impacts wildfire probability in forests of the western US. Regional Environmental Change 22. .
  • Siegel KJ, L Macaulay, M Shapero, T Becchetti, S Larson, F Mashiri, L Waks, V Butsic (2022) Impacts of livestock grazing on wildfire probability vary by region and vegetation type in California. Journal of Environmental Management 322, 116092. .
  • Siegel KJ, A Farah Perez, E Kinnebrew, M Mills-Novoa, J Ochoa, E Shoffner (2022) Integration of qualitative and quantitative methods for land use change modeling in a protected area in an Amazonian deforestation frontier. Conservation Biology. . Third place winner of Conservation Biology’s
  • Kinnebrew E, J Ochoa, M French, M Mills-Novoa, E Shoffner, KJ Siegel (2022) Biases and limitations of Global Forest Change and author-generated land cover maps in detecting deforestation in the Amazon. PLoS ONE 17(7), e0268970. .
  • Shapero M, KJ Siegel, J Gallo, J Brice, V Butsic (2022) Land cover conversion and land use change combine to reduce grazing. Journal of Land Use Science 17, 339-350. .
  • Free, CM, RB Cabral, HE Froehlich, W Battista, E Ojea, E O’Reilly, JE Palardy, J Garcia Molinos, KJ Siegel, R Arnason, MA Juinio-Meñez, K Fabricius, C Turley, SD Gaines (2022) Expanding ocean food production under climate change. Nature 605(7910), 490-496. .

Earlier

  • van Eeden L, C Bogezi, D Leng, J Marzluff, A Wirsing (2021) Public willingness to pay for gray wolf conservation that could support a rancher-led wolf-livestock coexistence program. Biological Conservation, 260, 109226.
  • Kinnebrew E, E Shoffner, A Farah Perez, M Mills-Novoa, J Ochoa, KJ Siegel (2020) A review and typology of methodological approaches to interdisciplinary mixed methods research in land change science and environmental management. Conservation Biology 35, 130-141. .
  • Siegel KJ, RB Cabral, J McHenry, E Ojea, B Owashi, SE Lester (2019) Sovereign states in the Caribbean have lower social-ecological vulnerability to coral bleaching than overseas territories. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 286(1897), 20182365. .
  • McDonald G, S Campbell, K Karr, M Clemence, P Granados-Dieseldorff, R Jakub, T Kartawijaya, JC Mueller, P Prihatinningsing, KJ Siegel, Y Syaifudin (2018) An adaptive assessment and management toolkit for data-limited fisheries. Ocean & Coastal Management 152(1): 100-119.
  • Leslie H, X Basurto, M Nenadovic, L Sievanen, K Cavanaugh, J Cota-Nieto, B Erisman, E Finkbeiner, G Hinojosa-Arango, M Moreno‐Báez, S Nagavarapu, S Reddy, A Sanchez-Rodríguez, KJ Siegel, JJ Ulibarria-Valenzuela, A Hudson Weaver, A Aburto-Oropeza (2015) Operationalizing the social-ecological systems framework to assess sustainability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(19): 5979-5984. .